How Trump Achieved a Major Step in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges With Putin Over Ukraine
Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian leadership summit have been overstated, apparently.
Just days after Donald Trump said he planned to confer with Russian President Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary get-together by the both countries' top diplomats has been called off, too.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump told reporters at the White House on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I will observe what happens."
- Trump says he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Letdown in Kyiv as Zelensky departs White House empty-handed
The on-again, off-again meeting is just the latest twist in the president's efforts to broker an end to hostilities in Ukraine – a topic of renewed focus for the US president after he orchestrated a ceasefire and hostage release agreement in Gaza.
During a speech in the North African country last week to commemorate that truce deal, Trump addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"It is essential to get Russia done," he declared.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for almost four years.
Less Leverage
Per Witkoff, the key to unlocking a deal was the Israeli government's move to strike representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a move that angered US partners in the Arab world but provided the president bargaining power to pressure Israel's leader Netanyahu into making a deal.
The US president benefited from a history of supporting the Israeli state dating back to his first term, encompassing his choice to move the US embassy to the contested city, to alter US policy on the legality of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, more recently, his support for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, in fact, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a position that gave him special sway over the nation's head.
Add in the president's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to force an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, the president has much less influence. In recent months, he has vacillated between attempts to pressure the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has threatened to enact additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could disrupt the global economy and intensify the conflict.
At the same time, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, halting briefly information exchange with Ukraine and suspending weapon deliveries to the nation - then to back off in the face of concerned European allies who warn a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the whole area.
The president loves to tout his ability to meet and negotiate agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to advance the hostilities any closer to a resolution.
Putin may actually be using the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a method of manipulating him.
During the summer, Russia's leader agreed to a high-level meeting in the US state at the time when it seemed probable that the president would approve on congressional sanctions package backed by GOP senators. That bill was subsequently put on hold.
Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was seriously contemplating sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the Russian leader phoned Trump who then touted the possible meeting in Budapest.
The following day, the president hosted Zelensky at the executive residence, but departed empty-handed after a allegedly tense meeting.
Trump insisted that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"You know, I have been manipulated throughout my career by the best of them, and I emerged really well," he said.
However the Ukrainian leader later commented on the timeline of developments.
"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for Ukraine – for Ukraine – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he said.
So, in a short period, Trump has bounced from considering the idea of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and confidentially pressuring Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – including land Russia has been failed to capture.
He has finally settled on calling for a truce along current battle lines – something Russia has rejected.
On the campaign trail last year, Trump promised that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has subsequently discarded that pledge, saying that concluding the hostilities is proving more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his authority – and the difficulty of establishing a framework for peace when both parties wants, or is able to, cease hostilities.