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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, although experts suggest the party is unlikely of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a multi-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the previous government in June over disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a election period dominated by topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with several experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of government. But, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks may require months, political observers indicate that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.